Conflict dossier · #92 of 120
Colombian armed conflict (1964–present)
21st Century & Ongoing Tier 1
Colombian armed conflict (1964–present)
Overview
- Belligerents: Government of Colombia vs. leftist guerrillas — FARC (demobilized 2016–17 under the Havana accords; dissident factions EMC/Estado Mayor Central and Segunda Marquetalia remain active), the ELN (National Liberation Army, founded 1964) — plus right-wing paramilitaries (AUC, demobilized 2006; successor groups incl. the Gaitanista Army/EGC, "Clan del Golfo") and drug-trafficking organizations.
- Dates: 1964–present; 2016 peace accord demobilized ~13,000 FARC fighters, but the conflict continues at reduced intensity as of the September 2026 observation window.
- Theater: Colombia — Catatumbo (Norte de Santander), Cauca, Nariño, Arauca, Guaviare, Chocó, Amazon departments; spillover into Venezuela and Ecuador.
Causes
- Historians trace origins to the 1948–58 La Violencia period, land concentration, and rural exclusion; the FARC formed in 1964 after military attacks on peasant "independent republics," the ELN inspired by the Cuban revolution and liberation theology.
- Analysts widely agree drug-trafficking revenues transformed and prolonged the conflict from the 1980s; paramilitarism is attributed by critics to state collusion (a contested claim Colombia's governments have variously denied or partially acknowledged through the Justice and Peace process).
- The 2016 accords' uneven implementation — assassinations of ex-combatants, land reform delays — is cited by Crisis Group and the UN as a driver of rearmed dissidence.
Course
Six decades of war killed ~260,000 (see below). The 2016 Havana accords ended the FARC insurgency; the ELN remained. President Petro's "Total Peace" (2022–) pursued simultaneous talks with all groups, with mixed results: ELN talks suspended repeatedly after attacks; a Feb 2026 ELN unilateral ceasefire preceded March congressional elections; FARC dissident factions (Iván Mordisco's EMC vs. Calarcá Córdoba's faction) fight each other for cocaine territory — at least 27 combatant deaths in Guaviare in Jan 2026 (OTAP threat assessment). The Catatumbo crisis: ELN–dissident fighting has left at least 166 dead and ~92,000 displaced (Fundación Paz y Reconciliación, cited 2026). On 25 April 2026 a bomb on the Pan-American Highway in Cajibío killed 20 and injured 36; Alexander Díaz Mendoza (EMBF) was killed by the army in Sept 2026. UN Verification Mission (Mar 2026) reported 4 former combatants killed in the reporting period and continued political violence.
Casualties
- 1964–2016: ~260,000 deaths, per Colombia's National Center for Historical Memory (CNMH); ~80% civilians. This is the standard scholarly figure.
- Post-accord (2016–2026): ~400+ social leaders and ex-combatants killed in Cauca alone since the accord (Crisis Group); 166 dead in Catatumbo 2025–26 (FIP).
- Displacement: ~7.7 million IDPs historically (Victims' Unit registry — one of the world's largest); ~92,000 newly displaced in Catatumbo (FIP).
- UN Verification Mission: verifies killings of ex-combatants quarterly (4 in the Dec 2025–Mar 2026 period).
Outcome & legacy (as of September 2026)
A partial peace. The FARC demobilization held broadly, but "Total Peace" is widely judged by analysts (ICG, 2026) to have stalled; Colombia now faces fragmented criminal-governance by ELN, EGC, and dissident factions rather than a single insurgency. Transitional justice (JEP) continues.
Tracker pulse
- UCDP lists Colombia as an active state-based conflict (government vs. ELN and FARC dissidents).
- ACLED records Colombia among Latin America's most event-dense countries.
- ICG CrisisWatch tracks monthly; Feb 2026 entry noted Petro–Trump talks, airstrikes on ELN in Catatumbo, and ELN's election ceasefire.
- HIIK codes the conflict as a limited war/violent crisis.
- Debate: government and some analysts argue remaining violence is organized crime, not armed conflict — a definitional dispute with legal consequences (IHL applicability).
Validation tier
Tier 1 — 2+ independent trackers plus the CNMH historical dataset and UN Verification Mission quarterly reporting.
UNVERIFIED points
- Exact current strength of ELN/dissident factions (figures vary 2,000–6,000+).
- Precise 2025–26 national death toll from the conflict (no single consolidated count; ACLED/UN figures are partial).
- Attribution of specific attacks (e.g., Cajibío bombing) where claimed by authorities but not independently verified.
Sources
- ICG, "Colombia: From 'Total Peace' to Local Peace" (2026): https://www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/latin-america-caribbean/andes/colombia/colombia-total-peace-local-peace
- ICG CrisisWatch Colombia, Feb 2026: https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/database?location[]=76&created=
- UN Verification Mission in Colombia, report S/2026/229 (infographic): https://unsco.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/2026-04/INFOGRAPHIC%20ENGLISH%20_Report%2026%20March%202026%20_0.pdf
- OTAP Initiative, Threat Assessment: ELN and FARC Dissident Influence (2026): https://otapinitiative.org/s/Threat-Assessment_-ELN-and-FARC-Dissident-Influence-on-Regional-Security-and-Governance.pdf
- Finance Colombia (ELN election ceasefire, 2026): https://www.financecolombia.com/eln-guerrilla-group-announces-unilateral-ceasefire-during-colombias-presidential-elections/