Conflict dossier · #98 of 120
Iraq War and insurgency (2003–present)
21st Century & Ongoing Tier 1
Iraq War and insurgency (2003–present)
Overview
- Belligerents: 2003–2011: US-led coalition vs. Saddam Hussein's Iraq, then Sunni/Shia insurgents and al-Qaeda in Iraq. 2011–2013: Iraqi government vs. Sunni insurgents. 2014–2017: Iraqi government + US-led coalition + Shia militias (PMF) + Kurdish Peshmerga vs. ISIS ("Islamic State"). 2018–present: Iraqi government vs. ISIS remnants (low-level insurgency).
- Dates: 20 March 2003–present (major combat phases ended 2011 and 2017; low-level ISIS insurgency ongoing as of the September 2026 observation window).
- Theater: Iraq — Anbar, Nineveh (Mosul), Diyala, Kirkuk, Salah al-Din, Baghdad.
Causes
- The 2003 invasion was justified by the US/UK on claims of Iraqi WMD programs and links to al-Qaeda — claims later discredited (Iraq Survey Group found no WMD stockpiles; the 9/11 Commission found no collaborative relationship). Critics attribute the invasion to a mix of neoconservative strategy and oil/geopolitical interests; supporters cite Saddam's defiance of UN resolutions.
- Analysts attribute the post-2003 insurgency to the CPA's de-Ba'athification and disbanding of the army, sectarian power dynamics, and the Syrian civil war spillover that enabled ISIS's 2014 rise.
Course
The invasion toppled Saddam in weeks; an insurgency and then sectarian civil war (2006–08) followed, with the US "surge" reducing violence. US troops withdrew Dec 2011. ISIS seized Fallujah (Jan 2014) and Mosul (June 2014), declaring a caliphate; a US-led coalition intervened from Aug 2014. Mosul was retaken July 2017 after nine months of urban warfare with massive civilian harm (a 40-cluster household survey found airstrikes the leading cause of civilian deaths among surveyed households — PMC, 2018). Iraq declared victory Dec 2017. ISIS reverted to a rural insurgency: its own Al-Naba infographic claimed 1,154 attacks worldwide in Islamic year 1447 (June 2025–June 2026), with only 11 attacks and 31 casualties claimed in Iraq (MEMRI/JTTM, June 2026) — ISIS's figures are propaganda, not verified counts. As of Sept 2026, Iraq faces low-level ISIS attacks, Turkish/Iranian cross-border strikes, and drone incidents (e.g., Erbil airport drone interception, 20 Sept 2026 — GeoBit/EPIC reporting).
Casualties
- 2003–2011: Iraq Body Count documented 100,000+ violent civilian deaths; the 2006 Lancet survey estimated ~600,000 excess deaths (highly contested); the Costs of War Project's totals run into the hundreds of thousands including combatants. No single authoritative figure → range only, UNVERIFIED as exact.
- 2014–2017 anti-ISIS war: UNAMI documented tens of thousands of civilian deaths; Mosul operation alone killed thousands of civilians (exact toll disputed; AP's Mosul investigation estimated 9,000–11,000 civilian deaths — widely cited but contested).
- 2018–present insurgency: low hundreds per year (UNAMI/ACLED-tracked).
Outcome & legacy (as of September 2026)
Saddam's regime destroyed; Iraq is a Shia-majority-led parliamentary state with Iranian and US influence competing, Kurdish autonomy entrenched, and ISIS territorially defeated but not eliminated. The war's contested legality and the WMD intelligence failure remain landmark controversies; the human and regional costs (including ISIS's emergence) are central to its legacy.
Tracker pulse
- UCDP codes Iraq as an active low-intensity conflict (government vs. ISIS).
- ACLED tracks weekly incidents (EPIC's Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor repackages ACLED/press data).
- ICG covers Iraq's political-security dynamics; HIIK codes it as a violent crisis.
- Debate: civilian death tolls of the 2003–2011 period remain one of the most contested numbers in conflict research (IBC vs. Lancet vs. official counts).
Validation tier
Tier 1 — UCDP, ACLED, ICG, HIIK, UNAMI historical data, Costs of War; casualty totals Tier 2 due to the well-documented estimation disputes.
UNVERIFIED points
- Exact total death toll 2003–present (estimates span ~200,000 to 600,000+ depending on method).
- ISIS's self-reported attack/casualty infographics (propaganda).
- Mosul civilian death toll (9,000–11,000 per AP investigation — widely cited, methodologically contested).
Sources
- MEMRI/JTTM (ISIS Al-Naba infographic, Islamic year 1447): https://www.memri.org/jttm/isis-weekly-infographic-summarizes-regional-activities-past-islamic-year-operations-africa-are
- EPIC, Iraq Security and Humanitarian Monitor, 10–17 Sept 2026: https://enablingpeace.org/ishm560/
- PMC, "Injury and death during the ISIS occupation of Mosul" (2018 household survey): https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5953440/
- Costs of War Project (Iraq totals): https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/sites/default/files/papers/Costs-of-War_Direct-War-Deaths_9-1-21.pdf