Conflict dossier · #116 of 120
Myanmar Civil War (1 February 2021–present)
21st Century & Ongoing Tier 1
Myanmar Civil War (1 February 2021–present)
Status: ongoing armed conflict, as of the September 2026 observation window.
Overview
- Belligerents: The State Administration Council (SAC) military junta (Tatmadaw — army, air force, navy) that seized power in the 1 February 2021 coup. Versus: the National Unity Government (NUG, the parallel civilian government) and its People's Defence Force (PDF) network; established ethnic armed organizations (Kachin Independence Army, Karen National Union/KNLA, Arakan Army, Ta'ang National Liberation Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and others); and hundreds of local defense forces. CFR notes over 1,200 armed factions. Some EAOs (e.g., UWSA) remain neutral; the Three Brotherhood Alliance launched Operation 1027 in October 2023.
- Dates: 1 February 2021 (coup) – present.
- Theater: Nationwide — Sagaing, Magway, Chin, Kachin, Karen/Kayin, Karenni/Kayah, Shan, Rakhine, Mon, Tanintharyi; urban resistance and rural insurgency.
Causes (attributed)
- The proximate trigger is undisputed in reporting: the Tatmadaw seized power on 1 February 2021, detaining Aung San Suu Kyi and elected leaders and annulling the 2020 election results, which the military alleged were fraudulent — an allegation rejected by election observers and the NLD (attributed).
- Analysts attribute the war's scale to: the junta's violent suppression of peaceful protests (which pushed resistance toward armed struggle); the NUG's September 2021 declaration of a "defensive war"; and the grafting of the new resistance onto decades-old ethnic armed conflicts, giving the opposition experienced EAO partners.
- The junta frames its opponents as "terrorists" and claims to be preserving national unity; the resistance frames the war as a revolution for federal democracy (attributed positions).
Course
Mass protests (February–April 2021) were crushed with lethal force; armed resistance organized from mid-2021 (PDFs, EAO alliances). The junta retained air power and heavy weapons but lost ground: Operation 1027 (October 2023, Three Brotherhood Alliance) overran much of northern Shan State; the Arakan Army seized most of Rakhine State through 2024; resistance forces captured district towns across Sagaing, Chin, Kayah and Karen areas. The March 2025 Mandalay earthquake compounded the humanitarian catastrophe. As of 2026 the junta controls major cities and the central lowlands but has lost vast border territories; it announced elections for late 2025/2026, widely dismissed by the opposition and observers as a sham (press reporting — attributed assessments).
Casualties (attributed)
- 100,114 conflict-related fatalities since the February 2021 coup (as of 1 July 2026) — ACLED (reported by Khaosod English, July 2026).
- 100,000+ deaths — Council on Foreign Relations, corroborating the scale (2026).
- Over 1,200 armed factions — CFR (illustrating fragmentation, not a casualty claim).
- Millions displaced (UN OCHA; exact September 2026 figure UNVERIFIED in this pass).
- Civilian-harm documentation: the junta's airstrikes on villages, schools and displacement camps are documented by the UN, Amnesty and local media (attributed); the junta denies targeting civilians.
Current status (as of September 2026)
- Active multi-front civil war; the junta on the strategic defensive in the borderlands but entrenched in the center; resistance fragmented among 1,200+ factions with the NUG claiming coordination it only partly achieves (analysts' assessment — attributed).
- Humanitarian catastrophe: millions displaced, health system collapsed in conflict zones, aid access blocked by the junta (UN reporting — precise figures UNVERIFIED in this pass).
- Trackers: ACLED (primary quantitative source), UCDP (active civil war coding), IISS Armed Conflict Database.
Tracker pulse
- ACLED: the definitive fatality/event count — 100,114 through 1 July 2026.
- CFR Global Conflict Tracker: corroborates 100,000+ deaths and 1,200+ factions.
- UCDP: active civil war (detail not directly retrieved).
- Debate: combatant vs. civilian breakdown (not published by ACLED in retrieved material); junta vs. resistance casualty claims are both unreliable — UNVERIFIED.
Validation tier
Tier 1 — 2+ independent trackers (ACLED + CFR + UCDP active coding) converging on scale and active status.
UNVERIFIED points
- Civilian vs. combatant breakdown of the 100,114.
- Current territorial control map.
- Exact displacement totals as of September 2026.
- Junta's announced election plans and their credibility (assessments attributed to observers).
Sources
- Khaosod English (July 2026): ACLED 100,114 conflict-related fatalities as of 1 July 2026
- Council on Foreign Relations: 100,000+ deaths; 1,200+ armed factions
- Coup date 1 February 2021; Operation 1027 October 2023 (widely reported, corroborated)
Images
Sources
- Khaosod English (July 2026): ACLED 100,114 conflict-related fatalities as of 1 July 2026
- Council on Foreign Relations: 100,000+ deaths; 1,200+ armed factions
- Coup date 1 February 2021; Operation 1027 October 2023 (widely reported, corroborated