Conflict dossier · #101 of 120
Somali Civil War / Al-Shabaab insurgency (1991–present)
21st Century & Ongoing Tier 1
Somali Civil War / Al-Shabaab insurgency (1991–present)
Overview
- Belligerents: Federal Government of Somalia (Somali National Army, Danab special forces) + African Union mission (AMISOM 2007–22, ATMIS 2022–24, AUSSOM from 2025) + international partners (US, Türkiye) vs. Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen (al-Qaeda affiliate) and, since 2015, an ISIS-Somalia faction in Puntland.
- Dates: 1991–present (state collapse and clan warlord phase 1991–2006; al-Shabaab insurgency from 2006/07). Ongoing as of the September 2026 observation window.
- Theater: South-central Somalia (Mogadishu, Lower/Middle Shabelle, Bay, Bakool, Gedo, Jubaland), with spillover into Kenya and Ethiopia.
Causes
- Analysts attribute the 1991 state collapse to the fall of the Siad Barre regime amid clan factionalism; the al-Shabaab phase grew from the 2006 Ethiopian intervention against the Islamic Courts Union and the group's alliance with al-Qaeda.
- The Somali government and AU attribute al-Shabaab's endurance to extortion economies (taxation of ports, checkpoints, businesses — the group is described by the UN and analysts as running one of the world's most effective insurgent tax systems) and clan manipulation.
- Al-Shabaab frames its fight as jihad against "apostate" governments and foreign occupiers.
Course
State collapse (1991), Ethiopian invasion (2006), AMISOM deployment (2007), and the 2011 famine-era Kenyan intervention shaped the war. Al-Shabaab lost Mogadishu in 2011 but retained rural control across much of the south. Major attacks include the Oct 2017 Zoobe truck bombing in Mogadishu (~587 killed — Africa's deadliest single terrorist attack). A 2022–23 government–clan militia (Ma'awisley) offensive, backed by US airstrikes and Turkish drones, retook territory; al-Shabaab counterattacked in 2024–25, including the Feb 2025 assassination attempt on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The AU mission transitioned to AUSSOM in 2025 amid funding shortfalls. As of Sept 2026: ACLED data via EPIC-style trackers show al-Shabaab-linked fatalities averaging ~520/month over the past year; the group staged attacks in Mogadishu, Beledweyne (hotel siege, 11+ killed, Mar 2025), and Bale in Ethiopia. A UCDP-based tracker (Sept 2026) estimated 3,619 organized-violence deaths in Somalia over the prior 12 months (range 3,598–4,186), including 116 recorded civilians; the Africa Center for Strategic Studies separately reported 6,224 al-Shabaab-linked fatalities over a similar window (methodological differences — see UNVERIFIED).
Casualties
- Total 1991–present: estimates commonly cited run into the hundreds of thousands (300,000–500,000+ including famine deaths in 1992 and 2011); no authoritative consolidated count → UNVERIFIED as exact.
- 2017 Zoobe bombing: ~587 killed (government figure; the single deadliest attack).
- Past 12 months (to Aug 2026): 3,598–4,186 organized-violence deaths per UCDP-based tracker; ~6,224 al-Shabaab-linked fatalities per Africa Center (different windows/methods — both reported, neither "the" count).
- Displacement: ~3–4 million IDPs/refugees historically (UNHCR figures vary by year).
Outcome & legacy (as of September 2026)
Unresolved. The Somali state has reconstituted (2012 federal government) and al-Shabaab has been pushed from cities, but the group remains one of al-Qaeda's strongest affiliates, controlling rural territory and taxing the economy. The AU mission's funding crisis is the war's key 2025–26 inflection point.
Tracker pulse
- UCDP codes Somalia as an active state-based conflict (among the world's deadliest).
- ACLED tracks Somalia weekly; EPIC-style monitors repackage the data.
- ICG, HIIK (war), and the Africa Center for Strategic Studies cover it continuously.
- Debate: the wide gap between UCDP-based (~3,600) and Africa Center (~6,200) fatality estimates reflects different inclusion criteria (organized violence vs. al-Shabaab-linked incidents) — report both with methods noted.
Validation tier
Tier 1 — UCDP, ACLED, ICG, HIIK, Africa Center, UN/OCHA humanitarian data.
UNVERIFIED points
- Total death toll since 1991 (300,000–500,000+ range; famine vs. violence attribution unclear).
- The 3,619 vs. 6,224 fatality discrepancy (methodological, not factual — both attributed).
- Al-Shabaab's revenue and strength estimates (UN reports give ranges; the group publishes nothing verifiable).
Sources
- ACLED via GlobalSecurity, "Somalia: Al Shabaab's Resurgence" (Sept 2026): https://www.globalsecurity.org/security/library/news/2026/09/sec-260921-rferl01.htm
- Armed Conflicts / UCDP-based tracker, Somalia – Al-Shabaab (accessed 23 Sept 2026): https://armedconflicts.org/somalia-al-shabaab.html
- ICG CrisisWatch Somalia, Aug 2026: https://www.crisisgroup.org/crisiswatch/database?location[]=87&created=
- EUAA, Somalia: Security Situation (Oct 2025 COI): https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2130405/2025_10_EUAA_COI_Somalia_Security-situation.pdf