Conflict dossier · #119 of 120
Sudanese Civil War (15 April 2023–present)
21st Century & Ongoing Tier 1
Sudanese Civil War (15 April 2023–present)
Status: ongoing high-intensity armed conflict, as of the September 2026 observation window. Described by the UN as one of the world's largest humanitarian crises.
Overview
- Belligerents: Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan; aligned with the Port Sudan-based government). Versus: the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF, led by Mohamed Hamdan "Hemedti" Dagalo). Numerous armed groups and ethnic militias fight alongside or independently (e.g., in Darfur and Kordofan); both sides receive reported external support — the UAE is alleged by Sudan's government, the US, and UN experts to arm the RSF (denied by the UAE — attributed); Egypt and others have backed the SAF in various forms (attributed reporting).
- Dates: 15 April 2023 – present.
- Theater: Nationwide — Khartoum (capital region), Darfur (El Fasher siege since 2024), Kordofan, Gezira, Sennar, White Nile; displacement into Chad, South Sudan, Egypt, Ethiopia, CAR.
Causes (attributed)
- The proximate trigger is widely reported: fighting erupted on 15 April 2023 in Khartoum/Merowe between the SAF and RSF after the collapse of negotiations over integrating the RSF into the army under the 2022 Framework Agreement for civilian transition (analysts' consensus account — attributed).
- Analysts attribute deeper drivers to: the 2019 ouster of Omar al-Bashir and the failed civilian transition; the 2021 coup by Burhan and Hemedti jointly; rivalry between the two generals for power and economic control (gold, trade networks); and the RSF's origins in the Janjaweed militias of the Darfur genocide era — a lineage cited by atrocity-prevention analysts (attributed).
- Both sides frame the war as defensive: the SAF claims to be restoring state authority; the RSF claims to be fighting an Islamist-dominated army command (attributed positions).
Course
Khartoum became a battleground in April 2023; the RSF seized much of the capital region and Darfur (Geneina fell mid-2023 amid reported massacres of the Masalit people — attributed to UN/human-rights reporting). The SAF held the east and, from late 2024, launched a counteroffensive retaking Khartoum (announced March 2025). The RSF besieged El Fasher (North Darfur's capital) from 2024; the Zamzam displacement camp was overrun in 2025. Fighting spread to Kordofan through 2025–2026. Multiple ceasefire initiatives (Jeddah, AU, UN) failed. The war has produced systematic atrocities: the US determined in January 2025 that the RSF committed genocide in Darfur (US government determination — attributed); both sides are accused of war crimes (UN Fact-Finding Mission — attributed; denied by the accused).
Casualties (attributed; wide range — no figure presented as settled)
- 29,582 deaths by end of October 2024 — ACLED (direct conflict deaths; conservative incident-based count).
- 40,000+ killed — UN reporting, February 2026 (conservative official figure).
- 150,000+ estimated — broader estimates cited by diplomats/analysts (e.g., US officials) accounting for unrecorded deaths.
- 14+ million displaced (IDPs + refugees) — UN figures (2025–2026), making it the world's largest displacement crisis.
- The widely circulated claim of 522,000 child deaths (a ReliefWeb-published synthesis) is NOT used here: it rests on weak methodology and was flagged in this pass as poorly supported — explicitly excluded per honesty rules.
- Famine: IPC confirmed famine in Zamzam camp (2024) and other Darfur/Kordofan areas (2025) — attributed to IPC/UN.
Current status (as of September 2026)
- Active: SAF controls Khartoum and the east/north; RSF holds much of Darfur and parts of Kordofan; El Fasher's fate is the pivotal battle (status at the September 2026 window UNVERIFIED in this pass).
- No peace process with traction; external involvement (alleged UAE support for RSF; Egyptian/Iranian/Turkish roles variously reported) is a major escalation factor — all attributed, much of it contested.
- Humanitarian: 14+ million displaced; famine conditions; cholera outbreaks; aid access obstructed (UN agencies).
Tracker pulse
- ACLED: primary quantitative tracker — 29,582 deaths through October 2024.
- UN (OCHA, UNHCR, Fact-Finding Mission): displacement, famine, and atrocity documentation; 40,000+ figure (Feb 2026).
- UCDP: active civil war coding (detail not directly retrieved).
- Debate: the true death toll (29,582 documented vs. 40,000+ UN vs. 150,000+ modeled); external-support attribution (UAE denial vs. UN-expert/US-government allegations); genocide determination (US determination re RSF; RSF denies — attributed).
Validation tier
Tier 1 — 2+ independent trackers (ACLED + UN OCHA/UNHCR + UN Fact-Finding Mission) converging on scale and active status; casualty totals presented as contested ranges.
UNVERIFIED points
- Consolidated death toll (ranges span 29,582 to 150,000+).
- Status of El Fasher and current control map as of September 2026.
- Exact displacement total as of September 2026.
- External support details (UAE–RSF allegations documented by UN experts but denied; other states' roles variously reported).
- The excluded 522,000 child-deaths claim (rejected as poorly supported — do not use).
Sources
- ACLED via factually.co synthesis: 29,582 deaths by end of October 2024
- UN reporting (Feb 2026): 40,000+ killed; 14+ million displaced
- US genocide determination (Jan 2025): attributed to US government statements
- El Fasher siege, Zamzam camp, Khartoum recapture (Mar 2025): widely reported, corroborated across outlets
Images
Sources
- ACLED via factually.co synthesis: 29,582 deaths by end of October 2024
- UN reporting (Feb 2026): 40,000+ killed; 14+ million displaced
- US genocide determination (Jan 2025): attributed to US government statements
- El Fasher siege, Zamzam camp, Khartoum recapture (Mar 2025): widely reported, corroborated across outlets